Mastering Accurate Sales Estimates: A Guide for Savvy Amazon Sellers
In the dynamic world of e-commerce, accurate sales estimates play a pivotal role in making informed business decisions, especially for Amazon sellers. While tools like JungleScout or AMZ Scout provide sales estimates, relying solely on these figures can lead to suboptimal purchase decisions. In this blog post, we'll delve into the intricacies of estimating future sales volume with precision, ensuring that sellers make well-informed choices.
Understanding the Limitations of Sales Estimates:
First and foremost, it's crucial to recognize that sales estimates are just that—estimates. Achieving 100% accuracy in predicting a product's future sales is an elusive goal. However, aiming for a 75% or higher accuracy is entirely feasible with the right approach and tools.
Steps for Properly Estimating Future Sales Volume on Amazon:
1. Historical Amazon Sales Ranks
One of the key indicators for estimating future sales is delving into historical sales ranks. Tools like Keepa or ProfitHunter offer insights into a product's daily sales rank throughout its entire presence on Amazon. This information helps identify whether a product is seasonal, new, or falls into the category of a fast or slow seller.
2. Utilize Free Amazon Sales Estimators
Leveraging free estimators from tools like Jungle Scout or AMZ Scout comes next. Plug in the product's 90-day average and current sales rank to get a comprehensive understanding of potential sales based on rank. This step offers a valuable perspective on how many units the product is expected to sell relative to its sales rank.
3. Consider Listing Variations
Check if the product has multiple variations listed together (for example, a red and blue option on the same listing). Sales ranks for variations are often shared, impacting overall sales predictions. Tools like ProfitHunter's review extension can provide insights into the percentage of total sales each variation receives.
4. Leverage Amazon's Sales Data
Explore Amazon's latest feature, "Bought Last Month," which reveals the rounded number of units sold in the previous month for products with over 50 units sold monthly. This information provides a highly accurate (direct from Amazon) snapshot of recent sales performance.
5. Analyze Amazon Review Counts
Review counts from the last 30 and 90 days offer additional data points using ALGO's Manual Sales Estimator Method. Aligning these counts with your sales estimate can enhance the accuracy of your predictions. A significant misalignment might indicate discrepancies in the estimated sales figure.
Conclusion: Crafting Informed Sales Estimates
In conclusion, crafting accurate sales estimates is a multifaceted process that involves blending historical data, leveraging multiple tools, and cross-referencing various metrics. By adopting this comprehensive approach, Amazon sellers can significantly enhance their ability to predict future sales volumes with precision. Remember, the key is to use a combination of these strategies to form a well-rounded estimate that aligns with the unique dynamics of each product.
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